The Alawiite issue...and the courage to put it forward

It is not difficult to deal with the Syrian situation and try to predict the situation in this important Arab country. The only certain thing is that what Syria is witnessing for more than seven months is the mother of the Arab revolutions. There has been an abnormal situation in Syria for almost half a century, but before the founding of the Syrian identity in its present form, in fact much earlier. There is an identity and regime crisis at the same time in Syria. This shows the depth of this crisis, which coincided with the birth of the identity, and the Syrian military coup that took place in 1949 where Husni al-Za'im was a cartoonish heroic figure. He remained in power less than six months...but he paved the way for a series of coups, during which there were a few years of normal political life in the country. Coups established the security state system, which appears to have lasted until today, which Syrians revolt against. Unity with Egypt in 1958 helped in establishing a security state. The arrival of the Baath Party in power on March 1963, with all the developments that eventually led to the control of the Alawiite sect to take over aspects of the state during which Hafez al-Assad came to power, all power, in 1970. The main change that has occurred in the Syrian situation with the succession of Bashar al-Assad to his father in the middle of the year 2000. The first part was to contain the power inside the ruling family more and more. Power is no longer shared between the senior officers who were Alawiite and under the direct control of Hafez al-Assad. Bashar ruled out the so-called "princes", i.e., team leaders, generals and officials directly responsible for the security services, and replaced them with family members close to the new Syrian president. The other part of the change, was the Syrian-Iranian rapprochement taking new dimensions with the arrival of Bashar to power and the beginning of an unprecedented dependence on the Iranian tool in Lebanon known as Hezbollah (party of God). The depth of this relationship increased with the American decision to invade Iraq and get rid of the ruling Baathist regime in 2003. Bashar al-Assad took note of the effect of this development on his regime getting closer to Iran on the one hand and started to develop a relationship with the Hezbollah on the other. Taking note that all these dramatic developments coincided with the deterioration of the situation in the Palestinian territories and Israeli delinquency towards more extremism, was King Abdullah II. Eight years ago, the Jordanian king tried to alert the Arabs and the Western and international societies, in particular the United States, to what awaits the region. He spoke on October 2004 about” Al Halal El Sheyee” (Shia crescent) stretching from Tehran to Beirut and southern Lebanon up to the Gaza Strip through Baghdad and Damascus. Many did not understand what he meant at the time. Many thought the Hashemite king was anti-Shia, although he is very close to them. He descends from the same lineage, which never distinguished between Sunni and Shia, between a Muslim and Muslim, between Arab and another. Was not King Hussein portraits, may God have mercy on him, in the houses of Lebanese Shiites in the 1960s and 1970s before Iranians succeeded in changing the nature of the Shiite community in a small country? Abdullah II was speaking of the dangers of the Iranian project, which Iraq has become a part of. The Iranian project has succeeded in subjugating Syria and Lebanon and Palestine to become its backyards. The Jordanian king picked up on early risks regarding the fall of Iraq in the hands of Iran, thanks to the American attack. Ensuing events came to confirm his fears, especially with the assassination of Lebanese PM Rafiq Hariri in February 2005. The aim of the crime was to get rid of the most important political Lebanese and Arab figure who at the time could stand in the face of the Iranian project. A few days ago, a new warning came from Abdullah II. He boldly called for, in an interview with a US network, "keeping up the pressure to reach a political solution" in Syria and ensure "a peaceful transition of power." He discussed Alawiite issue in details. He explained that the nature of the conflict has changed and that if Bashar al-Assad "cannot rule Greater Syria, will probably try the Alawiite option", which would be retreating to a Alawiite enclave. Not only he give an accurate description of the Syrian situation, he called for "communication with Alawiites and make them feel that they have a large stake in the future of Syria. This is very important." He did not hesitate to point out that the Syrian leadership has resorted before to an Alawiite area upon sensing danger, explaining that it was after the October War in 1973 when Hafez al-Assad was in power! The Jordanian king's words may not appeal to many people. However, he is ultimately an Arab official who is straightforward, and rejects equivocation of any kind. Is there anyone who would seek a political solution in Syria taking into consideration the Alawiites presence and that of other minorities...or is it that the worst option that awaits Syria? The worst option is the "abyss", which means "comprehensive civil war that will last for years" according to the words of Abdullah II. The King said his speech again and walked away. Is it time to heed his warning? The least that can be said is that the man did his duty towards his people and the Arab nation.