The entire West Bank, or half of it… Israel has the choice

Yossi Beilin, a former supporter of the Oslo Accords and Yasser Abdrabbu's partner in the Geneva Initiative, previously advised the Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to cancel the Oslo Accords. The Oslo Accords will be 20 years old next year, and their objectives, which were set to be achieved in 1999, have never been reached. Mr. Beilin now intends to launch a new initiative to save the shaky peace process in the Middle East. His initiative is based on taking practical steps towards the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, after realising that the Oslo Accords were clinically dead. As positive as this initiative seems to be, my dear readers must know that Mr. Beilin and his party, the Meretz-Yachad, are representing a very minor group amongst Israel's political spectrum, and all what they say or suggest is just "a chat on the Mediterranean shores." Israel is now in two minds, both of which don’t satisfy Mr. Beilin's dreams and illusions. The first theory says the Israelis should seize the whole West Bank territories, while the second says they shall seize only half of these territories... The majority still calls for seizing large areas of the West Bank, including the big settlements, the entire city of Jerusalem and some areas beyond the separation barrier of the West Bank. This majority also wants to keep a military control over the heights overlooking the Jordan Valley and the David Ben-Gurion airport, or even over the valley itself plus all the crossings. They want to achieve these targets either with or without the help of the Palestinian Authority, and either through negotiations or a unilateral action as the one called for by Ehud Barak. However, there is another religious-nationalist trend in Israel which has been growing recently which rejects any attempt to give up any territory of the Promised Land. This current has become more popular recently because of the reports that played down earlier calculations which reflected a population gap between Palestinian and Israeli residents of the West Bank to the Palestinians' favour. The recent reports revealed that the Palestinians' birth rate has decreased in the last few years and many Palestinians have left their country. The Israelis population has increased rapidly thanks to a growing birth rate and large numbers of Jewish immigrants who settled in the West Bank. This current also believes that the Arabs will be busy with the developments and repercussions of their "Spring" for at least 10 years, while the international community is already focusing on more important priorities, so the Israelis should feel no pressure to give the Palestinians anything. That means the only current debate in Israel is, just as I previously said, on whether Israel should seize the whole of the West Bank or only half of it. Nobody there thinks Israel will retreat to the borders of June 4, 1967. Nobody is worried by the PA’s quest to seek an official recognition from the UN General Assembly. This worry is placed and enlarged only in the imagination of some PA officials, who are so desperate to achieve any sort of success. The Israelis are not scared about the possibility of losing control over the security situation in the Palestinian territories. This is because the separation between Fatah [the West Bank] and Hamas [Gaza], has converted both of them into border guards working for Israel, and this separation won’t be over any time soon. There is an outrage among the people of the West Bank directed at President Abbas and his Prime Minister Salam Fayad - who wants to have such personalities in power? Meanwhile, Gaza is still healing its wound from the Hamas-Fatah conflict that created a fierce competition between Hamas' rival wings over the movement's leadership. These facts are taken into account by the decision-making sphere in Israel, although some of the Israeli officials still prefer to stay alert over the situation and be ready for all prospects, even if they are beyond sight at the moment. Israel began to look more and more confident since the PA leadership showed a well-recognised failure in finding an alternative to the hopeless peace negotiations with the Israelis, and another failure in renewing the authority's structure, policies, leaders and strategies. Israel's grown confidence is the only reason that can explain its openness to the Palestinian labour, tourists and businessmen, who are getting more and more dependent on the Israeli economy. Another factor that boosted Israel's confidence was the significant change in Hamas' strategies, as the Islamist movement was no longer a resistance movement since it took over in Gaza. It turned out into a group that seeks power and is ready to fight against its Palestinian compatriots and give up all of its principles only to stay in power. Since then, Gaza is no longer a threat to Israel. The threat now has moved to Sinai. The discussions taking place among Israel's political and security authorities show how serious the Israelis are taking Sinai, its deserts and its Bedouin tribes. The Oslo Accords have expired, as well as the two-state solution, now the entire peace process is only waiting for an official death certificate to be buried. This fact is well-known by the two rival Palestinian movements, but both of them seem unsure as to which attitude they should now adopt. This fact is also well-known by the decision-making sphere in Jordan, whose members showed massive support to the PA quest to gain UN recognition for the Palestinian state, as they believe this state will be "the first defence line of Jordan". However, none of the Jordanian officials has revealed "a plan B", or provided an answer to a simple question: What will they do if "the first defence line" didn't gain recognition?   --- The views expressed by the author do not necessarily represent or reflect the editorial policy of Arabstoday.