Egypt on the threshold of the second republic

For the first time in Egypt and the Arab world,  a presidential election is underway without anyone knowing who the incoming president will be. Even the public opinion polls did not succeed in predicting who will come first, second or third. It is the first time that none of the candidates are guaranteed to be overall winner in the opening round. It is really a democratic election in every sense of the word… with  strong competition for the votes of the Egyptian public…  It is a difficult birth of the second republic… It is the first of its kind election where Egypt, for the first time in its history, will be governed by one of its people who came to power through “ballot boxes,” not “bullet boxes.” It is not important who the elections will appoint, even if he is from the “remnants,” although we do not ever wish this… What is important is that he will be appointed  through democratic means, and will owe, for the first time, the people who brought him to power… It is not important who will rule Egypt in this critical transition period… What is more important is that he who comes to power will come out of it by the same means, and in the appointed time, not according to destiny, in the coming elections or thereafter… What is important is that the transfer of power in a major Arab country like Egypt has begun, and must not be halted under any circumstance or condition. For the first time in history, the public opinion polls in an Arab country have become important… Everybody knows that some of those who carry out public opinion polls in Egypt are biased, while some other entities are more independent and professional… However, none of them can give precise and decisive information, and are unable to predict wide gaps between candidates… There are five names in the election race that represent the major political, intellectual, and social Egyptian currents: Three Islamic candidates (Aboul Fotouh, Morsy, el-Awa), two of the “remnants”  (Amr Moussa, Ahmed Sheikh), and a fifth one who represents the national-leftist current (Sabbahy…) Those are practically neck-and-neckl in this hot presidential race, with relevant preferences of one over the other that wax and wane in accordance with the public mood, the political development, the hesitation of the indecisive bloc, and the identity of the entity that is examining the public opinion. All scenarios and probabilities are wide open. The second round could be between an Islamic candidate and another one of the “remnants”. It also could be between two Islamic runners (el-Awa is out of race), or between two of the “remnants.”… We do not know what the result will be. We are longing to know the result of the electoral battles … The Egyptian enthusiastic voter feels, for the very first time,  that his vote may make a difference… The era of referendums and the only president with no alternative, or that the only alternative is his son, has gone… The era of 99.99 percent has gone… This election is different… This time the  people decide who will be on the top of the regime pyramid. The Egyptian presidential election is not the end of the road; it is the beginning of an era… The coming president does not know his role and what his powers will be. For the first time in Egypt's history, or maybe world history, the race takes place on the basis that its functions and powers are not constitutionally determined so far… The new constitution has not been issued yet, and Egypt has not decided what form its new political system will take; whether it will be a presidential system with open powers as was the case with the past regimes, or it will be a presidential/parliamentary system like the French system for example, or a parliamentary system where governments are formed from inside the parliament, and acquire the general authority, leaving the presidency with just honorary powers that differ a little bit from one country to another, as in Turkey for example. What is more important than this is the questions which will be asked after the elections, and they are many ... How will the relationship be  between a president from the “remnants” and an Islamist parliament? What is the future of Egypt if the Islamists occupy all the authority positions? What  will be the future of the relationship between the authority triangle in Egypt: the army, the presidency, and the parliament?  Let alone the heavy agenda awaiting the new political team, which must start by feeding millions of the hungry, employing millions of the unemployed, solving the housing problems of a quarter of the Egyptian people, not to mention the debt problems, the budget deficit, the widespread illiteracy, the ruination of the educational apparatus, the weakness of investment, the renewal of the infrastructure in addition to the other problems that burden the country, whatever the identity of its incoming president? Adding to all that, how will external politics and the national, regional, and international relationships of Egypt in the coming stage be decided? What will be its relationship with the USA? What is the future of its peace with Israel and its relationship with it? What are the relationships it will hold with the regional powers (Turkey and Iran, for example)? Will the new Egypt be able to vie again for the leadership of the Arab world, after Mubarak and his regime have ruined it in favour of  the major and minor Gulf states ...? Endless questions and inquiries, but what is important is that Egypt is establishing its foot on the right track as it walks forward and upwards towards the future.