is the collapse of the iranian regime better for us
Last Updated : GMT 05:17:37
Emiratesvoice, emirates voice
Emiratesvoice, emirates voice
Last Updated : GMT 05:17:37
Emiratesvoice, emirates voice

Is the collapse of the Iranian regime better for us?

Emiratesvoice, emirates voice

is the collapse of the iranian regime better for us

Abdul Rahman Al-Rashid

To start with, it should not be understood from this analysis that the Iranian regime is crumbling and about to collapse. The truth is that the regime in Tehran is strong in its structures and apparatus, and it represents a strong sector that cannot be easily removed by demonstrations. However, the importance of the current popular dynamic in Iran, which took us by surprise again as it did in 2009, is that it could be a conducive factor leading to partial or total change in the future.
But before discussing the implications of the popular dynamic on our region, we must discuss its effects on Iran and its regime which would of course affect us. There are many possibilities. First, that the security forces will be able to suppress the demonstrations as they did eight years ago, without hesitating to kill unarmed protesters in front of mobile cameras. Second, that the regime will offer some concessions to absorb the crisis, such as dismissing President Hassan Rouhani and his government while continuing to suppress the uprising. The third possibility is that the demonstrations might become larger and more violent, benefiting from disputes between internal forces in the regime — such as the dispute between the Revolutionary Guards and the regular army over which will dominate the system. The fourth possibility, which is quite unlikely, would be the total collapse of the regime, turning the situation in Iran into one similar to those in Libya and Syria.
Overall, the disturbances in Tehran have been painful and have shaken the confidence in the regime of most Iranians and the outside world. Therefore, the regime is obliged to reconsider its position even if it manages to quell the demonstrations in the next few days. The recent speech by President Rouhani indicated that the government had to listen to its people. However, in case the third or fourth possibilities occur, there would be serious internal and regional consequences arising from the collapse of the regime.
As far as we — and I mean the states in the region — are concerned, the ideal situation would be the continuation of the present regime but with a change in its foreign policies and an end to its hostile projects. This view may seem strange, but the justification is that the region is already suffering from a great deal of destruction and cannot afford new chaos, additional civil wars, and many more refugees. But if the popular Iranian uprising succeeds in changing Iranian foreign policies and ending its foreign operations, and forces the regime to focus instead on internal reform and development, this would be the ideal option compared with the frightening scenario if the regime were to collapse.
The defect of this hypothesis is that the nature of the Iranian regime is not civil and, hence, is incapable of changing itself. Rather, the regime is theological and relies on force. In other words, it is a fascist theological regime. Therefore, it would be quite hard for it to reform its thoughts and views of the world. This is a question the supreme leadership of Iran, which must be in permanent session due to the dangerous developments, needs to discuss.
Should the regime weather the crisis and benefit from its lessons, it may survive. However, if it insists on confronting the demonstrators with bullets, and possibly with scapegoats to satisfy the angry crowds, more popular explosions cannot be ruled out in the future. The leaders of the Revolutionary Guards, together with the supreme theological leadership, are apparently arrogant. They think that they can expand the republic and make it a regional empire, geographically occupying some regional states, competing with international powers and threatening their interests in the Middle East, seeking to besiege Saudi Arabia and threaten Israel, and fighting multiple simultaneous wars. This is the way arrogant people think, ignoring the limits of Iranian power in a country whose people are suffering, and which is considered to have one of the poorest regional economies.

 

GMT 17:34 2018 Thursday ,30 August

Can people be religious without being rigid?

GMT 17:17 2018 Thursday ,30 August

Turkey-US differences should not be allowed

GMT 15:35 2018 Wednesday ,29 August

Could EU recession lead to more protectionism?

GMT 15:24 2018 Wednesday ,29 August

We must remember the two sides of John McCain

GMT 15:14 2018 Wednesday ,29 August

The Putin Method: All Nice And Legal

GMT 14:47 2018 Wednesday ,29 August

The clear choices facing Iran

GMT 14:18 2018 Wednesday ,29 August

The Helsinki irony: When Trump and Assad both win

GMT 14:10 2018 Wednesday ,29 August

Between forming a cabinet and collapse in Lebanon

Name *

E-mail *

Comment Title*

Comment *

: Characters Left

Mandatory *

Terms of use

Publishing Terms: Not to offend the author, or to persons or sanctities or attacking religions or divine self. And stay away from sectarian and racial incitement and insults.

I agree with the Terms of Use

Security Code*

is the collapse of the iranian regime better for us is the collapse of the iranian regime better for us

 



GMT 13:06 2012 Thursday ,14 June

Steady rise in temperature forecast in UAE

GMT 17:11 2016 Wednesday ,20 April

Hamdallah, Singapore Prime Minister meet

GMT 18:41 2017 Wednesday ,02 August

Bangladesh separates conjoined twins in rare surgery

GMT 00:59 2017 Monday ,20 February

Rousseff urges vote against impeachment

GMT 07:11 2018 Thursday ,18 January

Germany loans Lithuania 'birth certificate'

GMT 15:00 2017 Monday ,18 September

National Pavilion UAE’s Venice Internship now open

GMT 10:36 2017 Sunday ,31 December

Swimming with whale sharks in Mexico

GMT 15:02 2017 Wednesday ,22 February

5 Natural home remedies to stop hair loss

GMT 07:42 2017 Wednesday ,26 July

Khalid 5 football tournament launched

GMT 07:22 2017 Tuesday ,05 December

Mario Centeno, the 'Ronaldo' of the eurozone

GMT 12:51 2017 Monday ,08 May

Tadweer launches second e-Services edition

GMT 06:51 2017 Monday ,23 October

Electricity Minister receives German ambassador

GMT 12:24 2017 Tuesday ,17 October

Underlines importance of reconciliation

GMT 06:08 2014 Friday ,15 August

UN vote Friday on measure to weaken Iraq Islamists

GMT 14:43 2013 Tuesday ,04 June

British Council launches new global English exam

GMT 11:45 2013 Wednesday ,17 April

Syria photograph wins Pulitzer

GMT 02:39 2016 Friday ,04 November

Singaporean president visits Giza pyramids plateau
Emiratesvoice, emirates voice
 
 Emirates Voice Facebook,emirates voice facebook  Emirates Voice Twitter,emirates voice twitter Emirates Voice Rss,emirates voice rss  Emirates Voice Youtube,emirates voice youtube  Emirates Voice Youtube,emirates voice youtube

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2021 ©

Maintained and developed by Arabs Today Group SAL.
All rights reserved to Arab Today Media Group 2021 ©

emiratesvoieen emiratesvoiceen emiratesvoiceen emiratesvoiceen
emiratesvoice emiratesvoice emiratesvoice
emiratesvoice
بناية النخيل - رأس النبع _ خلف السفارة الفرنسية _بيروت - لبنان
emiratesvoice, Emiratesvoice, Emiratesvoice