The Persian ‘domino effect’

The mastermind of Aleppo’s capture, Qassem Soleimani — head of Iran’s Al-Quds Force — was recently pictured strolling through the rubble of the occupied city, seemingly admiring the fruits of his labor.
He boasted in 2015: “We are witnessing the export of the Islamic revolution throughout the region, from Bahrain and Iraq to Syria, Yemen and North Africa.” For Soleimani, Aleppo is but one domino that Iran intends to tip over. As Hitler once toured an occupied Paris, and as Allenby strolled in captured Jerusalem, this was Soleimani’s victory lap.
One of his deputies, Gen. Hossein Salami, reportedly told Iranian media: “After the liberation of Aleppo, Bahrain’s hopes will be realized and Yemen will be happy with the defeat of the enemies of Islam.” In other words, when Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp. (IRGC) officials publicly threatened this summer to establish a “Shiite liberation army,” they meant it.
Iran and its proxy forces in Aleppo paid a heavy toll. The Lebanese Hezbollah terror group is estimated to have lost around 1,500 fighters in Syria. Over a dozen high-ranking Iranians have also been killed. Iraqi Shiite militias deployed to Aleppo numbered at least 2,000 — hundreds of those fighters on that front and elsewhere in Syria have been sent back to Najaf in body bags.
Soleimani’s message is clear: Aleppo is testament to Tehran’s commitment to expanding its influence. No matter the cost or destruction, Tehran is willing to go to extraordinary lengths to achieve its primary goal of exporting its influence. This is why Soleimani wanted to ensure that the West and the Arab Coalition understood that the outcome in Aleppo is a reflection of Iranian power.
If history has taught us anything, it is that in geopolitics, an adversary’s hubris and rapacious nature is further inflamed when it believes it is winning. Such is the case with Iran today. Capturing Aleppo has not satiated Iran’s hegemonic appetite in the region. Its leadership is loudly and unabashedly signaling to the world that its forces will not stop in Syria.
Take the case of Akram Al-Ka’abi, leader of a major Iraqi Shiite extremist militia operating in Syria. He operates under the direct control of the IRGC, and is an internationally designated terrorist who was co-founder of one of the deadliest Iraqi Shiite militant groups in Iraq: Asaib Al-Haq. Al-Ka’abi’s forces played an important role in spearheading the assault on Aleppo.
To highlight the weight Iran placed on Shiite extremists such as him, Al-Ka’abi met with Iran’s supreme leader Ali Khamenei this week. Last year, Al-Ka’abi told Iraqi media that he takes his orders directly from Khamenei.
The point is that Iran’s battlefield success is significantly dependent on leveraging proxy groups to train and produce more proxies. It was no coincidence that in 2007, Asaib Al-Haq leader Qais Khazali was captured alongside Hezbollah senior external operations commander Ali Musa Daqduq.
In turn, the core leadership of Asaib Al-Haq reported to Abdul Reza Shahlai, director of the Al-Quds Force’s external operations branch. It just so happens that Shahlai was likely the brains behind the 2011 failed plot to assassinate Saudi Arabia’s then-ambassador to the US, Adel Al-Jubeir.
The Syrian people continue to suffer as Iran’s long march from the Caspian to the Mediterranean continues. However, their suffering should serve as a wakeup call to the entire region: Iran’s forces are well-trained and battle-hardened, and as ruthless as ever. The Syrian blood they have spilled will not be contained within what is left of the country.
Another important lesson from history is that when your adversary broadcasts his intentions, you should take him at his word. Iran’s senior leadership and regional proxies have laid out their vision in the starkest terms.
The contiguous corridor Iran is seeking to establish from Baghdad to Damascus to Beirut is just an extension of the zone of control it seeks to establish from the Arabian Gulf to the Gulf of Aden. Soleimani and his ilk have not been shy in warning us that this is what they intend to accomplish.
Intoxicated by victory in Syria and Iraq, Iran will be in no mood to negotiate in good faith. Harder times are ahead for the Syrian people. Iran will only back down and consider altering its course if it is confronted with strength. Otherwise, Aleppo is just the beginning.