Ankara - AFP
Turkey's growing domestic and external imbalances could affect its positive rating outlook if they are left unaddressed, Moody's warned on Wednesday, calling for government action. "Growing domestic and external imbalances will, if left unchecked, begin to adversely affect Turkey's rating trajectory," Moody's Investor Service said in a statement. "The resilience of Turkey's economic and fiscal fundamentals during the global financial crisis has underpinned the positive outlook on the country's Ba2 rating but a lack of corrective action on domestic and external imbalances could stall positive rating momentum," it added. The global economic crisis saw the Turkish economy slump 4.7 percent in 2009 but it grew by 8.9 percent last year, higher than government expectations. "Turkey's large current account deficit is a particular issue, as the government is now financing its deficit using sources of capital that are more volatile" Moody's said. This leaves Turkey "susceptible to sudden shocks or shifts in investor sentiment," it added. Turkey's immediate challenge is "to strengthen its resilience to external shocks by restraining domestic demand," it said, calling on the government to fix the situation especially since the June 12 elections are now behind it. The Islamist rooted Justice and Development Party (AKP), which has won kudos for its business-friendly policies in the past, won a third straight term by a landslide in June elections. "Now that Turkey's elections are over, Moody's expects that the policy environment will be relatively dynamic and that the direction of fiscal and monetary policy will be important for the rating trajectory over the next 12 months," Moody's said. "Additional measures could include a narrowing of its external imbalance and the accumulation of a larger buffer of both private and official foreign exchange reserves," it added. Meanwhile, Turkey's Central Bank will hold an extraordinary meeting Thursday to discuss the "increasing concerns over sovereign debt problems of some European countries and global growth outlook," it said on its website. Analysts said the meeting could result in an interest rate hike as the central bank seeks to slow growth, thereby dampening imports. "The meeting ... is likely to result in an increase in the Central Bank's overnight borrowing rate," TEB bank said in a research note. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said last month he was not concerned about the current account deficit. Turkey, which is a candidate for European Union membership and is vying to take on a bigger role in the Middle East, emerged from recession nearly a decade ago with aid from the International Monetary Fund in return for deep structural reforms which are now bearing fruit.