GCC expects Trump to shore up US role as main strategic partner

Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states are quietly applauding the arrival in the White House of a president opposed to Iran, even if they suspect Donald Trump’s short temper and abrasive tweets may at times heighten tensions in the Middle East. 
While many countries around the world listened with concern to his protectionist inaugural address, Gulf officials appear optimistic. They see in Trump a strong president who will shore up Washington’s role as their main strategic partner in a region central to US security and energy interests.
In the GCC’s eyes, that involves above all checking what they see as a surge of Iranian support for paramilitary allies in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon.
It also means overlooking for now rhetoric about uniting “the civilized world against radical Islamic terrorism” in his inaugural address.
There have been tensions over Syria, where Barack Obama dismissed Gulf states’ urgings to give more aid to the opposition fighting Bashar Assad, who has survived thanks to Iranian and Russian backing.
“Perception is important: Trump does not look like the kind of guy who will bend toward Iran or anyone else,” said Abdulrahman Al-Rashed, a veteran Saudi commentator.
“If he behaves as he says, then we will see another Ronald Reagan, someone all the forces in the region will take seriously. That’s what we have missed in the past eight years, unfortunately.”
Some worry that Trump’s Twitter habit — his rapid, unbridled messages of praise or blame — mean he is unsuited to handling the volatility of the Middle East.
Faisal Al-Yafai, a columnist with The National newspaper of Abu Dhabi, said that while his use of social media could be a problem, Trump was unlikely to change.
“At some point down the line something will happen in the world that will require a careful response, a careful policy, and Trump will react emotionally. That is always going to be the worry. But that is his attitude. That is who he is. Those who like Trump like that aspect of his personality,” he said.
Some Arab commentators see a political resemblance between Trump and Reagan, who also campaigned on the slogan of making America great again. Reagan was also a strong backer of the military, although in the Middle East his 1981-89 presidency was marked by extended crises involving Iran, Lebanon and Libya.
While few in the Gulf expect Trump to repudiate the Iran nuclear deal despite his threats to do so, most want Tehran pressured to roll back what Gulf states see as subversion in fellow Arab states by a revolutionary theocracy.
“I think he is going to be very, very tough on Iran. He will be decisive,” said a Gulf businessman, noting he expected the deal-maker Trump would demand something in return.

Foreign policy
Moments after his speech, the White House website said the Trump administration would make defeating “radical Islamic terror groups” its top foreign policy goal and would develop a “state-of-the-art” missile defense system to protect against attacks from Iran and North Korea.
That will be the job in particular of Secretary of Defense James Mattis, Secretary of State nominee Rex Tillerson, and CIA chief nominee Mike Pompeo, all well known to Saudi officials.
In particular Mattis, a retired Marine general known for distrust of Iran, is a familiar figure to GCC leaders.
A former leader of Central Command, which oversees US military operations in the Middle East and South Asia, Mattis said in Senate confirmation hearings this month that Iran was “the biggest destabilizing force in the Middle East and its policies are contrary to our interests.”
Such views play well with Gulf officials.
“We hope Trump can correct (Obama’s) policy, and while we are not sure of that yet, his choices to run the administration all sound experienced,” said Al-Rashed.
On Syria, Yemen, Iran and Bahrain, Obama’s preference for dialogue appeared weak to some Gulf Arabs.
Trump’s own vision of “peace through strength” may change that perception of a passive Washington, and encourage Gulf Arabs to press on with a military build-up that relies heavily on US and European defense companies.
Any number of issues could yet disturb ties — Jerusalem, oil policy and the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act (JASTA).
One of the most explosive appears to be Trump’s vow to move the US Embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem, which would upend decades of US policy, and his appointment as ambassador a lawyer who raised money for a major Jewish settlement.
Another issue is Trump’s policy of seeking to destroy Daesh. Gulf states agree with him on the goal, but use of polarizing language and reliance solely on military force, would raise objections.

Source : Arab News